Axing Pollard isn’t brave from Erasmus – it’s just smart

Scott Robertson, the New Zealand head coach, is a smart man. It takes one to know one. While many headlines debated the bravery of Rassie Erasmus making ten changes for the recent second Test against Australia in Perth, Robertson called the South African selection as it was.
“I don’t think it’s brave, it’s just smart to stay the course…” he said, the Kiwi referring to the South African’s stated objective to prioritise his bid for a triple World Cup triumph in 2027. Robertson is one of the smartest rugby minds out there. This Saturday, when the All Blacks meet South Africa, he comes up against Erasmus, whose CV suggests he’s the sharpest of them all.
Erasmus knows that to be brave without being smart is a major flaw. Rugby is a throbbing, thunderous sport but we have all heard too many coaches say their side “gave their all” in too many narrow defeats. Big, brave and dumb gets you nowhere — or at least nowhere near the maximisation of a team’s talent.
Once derided as the game’s global bully, the Springboks have reinvented themselves as the cleverest of rugby thinkers. Erasmus’s clarity of long-term thinking has played a seminal role in his and his team’s 2019 and 2023 successes.
Despite the defeat at home by Ireland, the reigning world champions have five wins from six games and an undoubted fluency to add to their attacking ambition post-World Cup. Tony Brown, the former understudy to the majestic Andrew Mehrtens in the black of New Zealand, has added a great deal in a relatively short space of time as a visionary attack coach.
The combination of style and success enables Erasmus to illustrate the intellect of Springbok rugby, time and again. There was a time when nothing mattered more than a match with New Zealand. Now it is a high point on a four-year journey, whereas not so long ago a couple of defeats could have been the end of the road for a losing coach.
All the pressure is on Scott Robertson in Johannesburg on Saturday — and I don’t believe he is under that much pressure himself. Even if he loses in Ellis Park and Cape Town, those that appointed him will rightly say that this is the start, not end point. The previous regime lost games — and the plot — midway through the 2019 and 2023 World Cups but still took their team to the brink of glory against South Africa in Paris.
This is as pressure free a Kiwi-Springbok game as there has ever been. What a contrast with their last meeting, the final itself. It can be argued — paradoxically — that the Springboks prevailed that night because Erasmus made a stunning error in semi-final selection a week earlier by opting for the fluid attacking game of Manie Libbok over the hardened Test match experience of Handré Pollard.
Everyone knew the rain was coming. It levelled down the semi-final, allowing England’s fast defence to neuter the previously impressive all-round South African game. Libbok is a lovely player to watch but sometimes the elements get a grip on a game. The brave decision to start the player with the poetry at his fingertips was not smart.
The smart decision would have been to adapt to the excessive elements and opt for Pollard. As it was Erasmus saw the error as early as the 31st minute and substituted the poetry for the pragmatic. Pollard’s stunning kick to the corner put his team in position for their only try of the game. Add the epic, late match-winning kick from 50 metres plus and here was the hero of South Africa’s hour.
Cold, wind and rain was forecast for the final. There wasn’t even a debate as to the starting No 10. The brave decision from a week earlier guaranteed Pollard’s inclusion and the rest is rugby history. So when Robertson describes Springbok selection as smart rather than brave, it is a nod of recognition.
This weekend, some will see the possible inclusion of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, with just six caps, as the “brave” selection, given the presence of Pollard on the bench.
Surely, conservatives will argue, the smart call is to recall Pollard, the man who played such a blinder against New Zealand ten years ago as a 20-year-old. Feinberg-Mngomezulu endured the least convincing of his six Tests to date during the second Test when Perth rivalled Paris for the foulness of its weather.
Yet those conditions are not forecast and while winning matters a great deal, next Saturday’s result pales besides the 2027 World Cup final. Some coaches are petrified to peek beyond the next 80 minutes, others have the steady vision to peer over the horizon into the future.
An argument can be made for selecting Pollard if beating New Zealand in 2024 is the beginning and end of a management’s planning. That requires Erasmus to steer his ship off course while the sailing is plain.
This is an opportunity to give potential a chance to grow towards greatness. Pollard remains available to come off the bench as he did against England. On that day, Erasmus made a mistake not to select him as No 10. This weekend it would be a surprise for Pollard to be picked over the face of the future. The home team can expand and test their attacking limits against their great rivals. Victory in style would be a huge step for South Africa, defeat a small setback. Feinberg-Mngomezulu isn’t a brave selection. It is the smart one.